Climate Change and Agricultural Output in Nigeria

Abstract

This study analysed the effect of Climate Change on Agricultural Output in Nigeria. It applied descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and OLS on time series data sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and World Bank Development Indicator for the period of 1990-2025. It revealed that the data were normally distributed based on Jargue Bera statistics and its p-value whereas the unit root test result indicated that the variables are stationary at level which necessitated the choice of OLS. The findings of this study revealed that that climate change variables have positive and insignificant effects on agricultural output, it also submits that government intervention policy has positive and significant effect on agricultural output and on the other hand, insecurity has negative and significant effect on agricultural output in Nigeria within the period of this analysis. Based on this outcome of the study, hence the following policy recommendations would be proffered for the Nigerian economy as: government should build irrigations and dams that will provide alternative sources of water for agricultural production, engage experts and meteorologists to forecast weather that are realistic and upto-date statistics for farmers, sustain her efforts in subsidy provisions and farm inputs for large scale production of agricultural output and Finally, Federal government and state governments should provide proactive measures to minimize the negative effect of insecurity on agricultural output  reduce the issue of food insecurity in Nigeria.