EVALUATION OF THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON BUILDING COLLAPSE IN LAGOS STATE

Abstract

This paper evaluated of the effect of climate change on building collapse in Lagos State. This study compares 10-years changes in temperature and precipitation to determine whether the rate of flooding increases or decreases with increasing temperature and precipitation. The data used were 10-year mean annual and monthly precipitation (mm) and maximum and minimum temperature (0 C) data obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) responsible for measurement, control and monitoring, Storage of Hydrometeorological Data for Nigeria. Data were also collected by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and the Lagos State Emergency Management Agency LASEMA. This data covers flood/storm frequency in Lagos State from 2011 to 2021. A list of collapsed buildings in Lagos State was also collected by the Lagos State Regional Planning Department. Mean annual precipitation and mean annual temperature for Lagos were calculated for a decade (2011 to 2021). Averages for each climatic period were determined to allow comparison of changes between these periods. Subtracting the value of the first climate period from the second climate period gives the temperature change over the study period. Analysis of the data used simple linear regression analysis to postulate a stochastic relationship between mean temperatures within the considered annual intervals. The purpose of regression analysis is to check whether the data are statistically significant. Result was presented in graphs which revealed that: temperatures are rising and the number of wet days per year is decreasing in Lagos state. It was also found that rainfall intensity increased while the number of rainy days decreased. This is a strong indicator that the climate in the study area is changing. During the 10-year study period, it was observed that the temperature in the study area increased by 0.387 C. Changing climatic conditions are having a negative impact on buildings and infrastructure in Lagos State. Floods in Lagos show an increasing trend, and the frequency of floods in Lagos State has gradually increased over the last five years of the study period. Along with this, the number of flood-affected and collapsed buildings increased during the same period. Observed statistically significant changes in both temperature and precipitation clearly support that climate change is occurring.